@Article{CostaSAMSKFOS:2019:AvSiHi,
author = "Costa, Cl{\'a}udia Priscila Wanzeler da and Souza, Everaldo
Barreiros de and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Meira Filho, Luiz Gylvan
and Silva Ferreira, Douglas Batista and Kuhn, Paulo Afonso Fischer
and Franco, V{\^a}nia dos Santos and Oliveira, Juarez Ventura de
and Sodr{\'e}, Giordani Rafael Concei{\c{c}}{\~a}o",
affiliation = "{Instituto Tecnol{\'o}gico do Vale (ITV)} and {Universidade
Federal do Par{\'a} (UFPA)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and
{Instituto Tecnol{\'o}gico do Vale (ITV)} and {Universidade
Federal do Par{\'a} (UFPA)} and {Instituto Tecnol{\'o}gico do
Vale (ITV)} and {Instituto Tecnol{\'o}gico do Vale (ITV)} and
{Universidade Federal do Par{\'a} (UFPA)}",
title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o de simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o hist{\'o}rica da
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e temperatura na Amaz{\^o}nia oriental
utilizando um modelo de alta resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o",
journal = "Revista Brasileira de Climatologia",
year = "2019",
volume = "25",
pages = "612--642",
month = "jul./dez.",
keywords = "Dowscaling din{\^a}mico, PRECIS, Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modelo
clim{\'a}tico, HadGEM2-ES, Amaz{\^o}nia oriental, Dynamical
downscaling, PRECIS, Assessment of climate model, HadGEM2- ES,
Eastern Amazon.",
abstract = "Este estudo apresenta avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o do sistema de
modelagem clim{\'a}tica regional PRECIS (Providing Regional
Climate for Impacts Studies) em simular o clima atual (25 anos,
1981-2005) sobre a Amaz{\^o}nia oriental. As sa{\'{\i}}das do
modelo global HadGEM2-ES foram utilizadas como
condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de contorno para o modelo regional dentro do
PRECIS, o HadRM3P. Os dados consistiram de m{\'e}dias mensais de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o (mm.dia-1 ) e temperatura do ar
(\C.dia-1 ), a partir das quais obteve-se as m{\'e}dias
sazonais. Para a avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o com as
simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es fez-se o uso de observa{\c{c}}{\~o}es
provenientes do CPC (Climate Prediction Centre) e do CRU (Climate
Research Unit). O desempenho do modelo foi avaliado atrav{\'e}s
de an{\'a}lises de {\'{\i}}ndices estat{\'{\i}}sticos como o
vi{\'e}s, Raiz do Erro M{\'e}dio Quadr{\'a}tico (REMQ),
coeficiente de correla{\c{c}}{\~a}o, m{\'e}dia e desvio
padr{\~a}o. Os resultados mostraram que o PRECIS reproduz
razoavelmente bem os padr{\~o}es espaciais sazonais da
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e temperatura na {\'a}rea de estudo,
por{\'e}m apresenta erros sistem{\'a}ticos provenientes do
HadGEM2-ES, principalmente em DJF (Dezembro-Janeiro-Fevereiro) e
MAM (Mar{\c{c}}o-Abril-Maio) no norte (em rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o
{\`a} precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o) e no leste ({\`a} temperatura)
da regi{\~a}o, respectivamente. Todavia, representou bem a
variabilidade temporal da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o na
por{\c{c}}{\~a}o sul da regi{\~a}o, principalmente em MAM, e da
temperatura em JJA (Julho-Agosto-Setembro). Os escores
estat{\'{\i}}sticos entre as s{\'e}ries de dados simulados e
observados das regi{\~o}es homog{\^e}neas na Amaz{\^o}nia
oriental revelaram que o HadRM3P tem melhor acur{\'a}cia em
simular a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o em JJA, enquanto a temperatura
{\'e} melhor representada em SON (Setembro-Outubro-Novembro). Em
rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao ciclo anual nas regi{\~o}es
homog{\^e}neas, o modelo regional apresentou melhor desempenho
que o global em reproduzir a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o,
principalmente na esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o seca, no entanto, tanto o
modelo global quanto o modelo regional tendem a acentuar o ciclo
anual da temperatura. ABSTRACT: This study presents an assessment
of the regional climate modeling system PRECIS (Providing Regional
Climate for Impacts Studies) in simulating the current climate (25
years, 1981-2005) on the eastern Amazon. The HadGEM2-ES global
model outputs were used as boundary conditions for the regional
model within PRECIS, HadRM3P. The data consisted of monthly
averages of precipitation (mm.day-1 ) and air temperature
(°C.day-1), from which the seasonal means were obtained. The
simulations were evaluated with observations from the CPC (Climate
Prediction Center) and the CRU (Climate Research Unit). The
performance of the model was evaluated through statistical index
analyzes such as bias, root mean square error (RMSE), correlation
coefficient, mean and standard deviation. The results showed that
PRECIS reproduces reasonably well the seasonal spatial patterns of
precipitation and temperature in the study area, but presents
systematic errors from HadGEM2-ES, mainly in DJF
(December-JanuaryFebruary) and MAM (March-April-May) in the north
(in relation to precipitation) and in the east (at the
temperature) of the region, respectively. However, it represented
well the temporal variability of the precipitation in the southern
portion of the region, mainly in MAM, and the temperature in JJA
(July-August-September). Statistical scores between the simulated
and observed data series from the homogeneous regions in the
eastern Amazon revealed that the HadRM3P has a better accuracy in
simulating precipitation in JJA, while at temperature, it is
better represented in SON (September-OctoberNovember). Regarding
the annual cycle in the homogeneous regions, the regional model
presented a better performance than the global one in reproducing
precipitation, particularly in the dry season, however, both
models, global and the regional, tend to accentuate the annual
temperature cycle.",
issn = "2237-8642",
language = "pt",
targetfile = "costa_avaliacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "30 abr. 2024"
}